F-Forex, Diary of a quant forex trader

Double distribution with last hour rally

trader — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 04:51:01 +0000

Today the market was making a double distribution accepting lower prices but in the last hour of the trade the market rally to the upper first node of this previously formed distribution and closing there:

1169.75 a
1169.50 a
1168.50 a
1168.25 a
1168.00 a
1167.50 ab
1167.25 a
1167.00 a
1166.75 a
1166.50 a
1166.25 b
1166.00 a
1165.75 a
1165.50 ab
1165.25 b
1165.00 a
1164.75 b
1164.50 a
1164.25 0b
1164.00 b
1163.25 b
1163.00 b
1162.75 b
1162.25 b
1161.75 b
1161.50 b
1161.25 b
1161.00 b
1160.75 b
1160.50 f
1160.25 be
1160.00 ef
1159.75 ef
1159.50 ef
1159.25 ef
1159.00 efg
1158.75 ef
1158.50 bef
1158.25 efg
1158.00 cef
1157.75 cef
1157.50 eh
1157.25 befh
1157.00 cefgh
1156.75 cefh
1156.50 cdefg
1156.25 cegh
1156.00 dgh
1155.75 eh
1155.50 cdgh
1155.25 cdgh
1155.00 dh
1154.75 dh
1154.50 cdgh
1154.25 dgh
1154.00 cdgh
1153.75 cdg
1153.50 dg
1153.25 cdg
1153.00 cgh
1152.75 cgm
1152.50 cdg
1152.25 cg
1152.00 dgi
1151.75 m
1151.50 cgim
1151.25 cm
1151.00 m
1150.75 m
1150.50 c
1150.00 i
1149.75 im
1149.25 i
1148.75 im
1148.50 im
1148.25 i
1148.00 i
1147.75 m
1147.50 m
1147.25 i
1146.75 m
1146.50 ij
1146.25 ijm
1146.00 ijm
1145.75 i
1145.50 im
1145.25 i
1145.00 m
1144.75 i
1144.50 ij
1144.25 im
1143.50 m
1143.25 ijk
1142.75 km
1142.50 k
1142.25 jk
1142.00 j
1141.75 kl
1141.50 jk
1141.25 jk
1141.00 jkl
1140.75 jkm
1140.50 k
1140.25 jkl
1139.75 jkl
1139.50 jl
1139.25 k
1139.00 jl
1138.75 jl
1138.50 jkl
1138.25 jkl
1138.00 jk
1137.75 jkl
1137.50 k
1137.25 jkl
1137.00 jkl
1136.75 jl
1136.25 kl
1136.00 l
1135.25 l
1134.75 l
1133.75 l

Double distribution accepting lower prices

trader — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 05:53:09 +0000

The market opened today at 1172 area, this is where the selloff of yesterday last hour ended. The ES wasn’t able to form volume at this yesterday levels so it is trying to form it today. As the market accept lower values it moves on to a range of prices between 1155 and 1158. This is again accepted and the market sell off to 1144. Finally this value is rejected and the market get back to an 1150 area closing there.

1178.25 a
1177.75 a
1177.25 a
1177.00 ab
1176.75 a
1176.50 a
1176.00 a
1175.75 a
1175.25 ab
1175.00 ab
1174.50 b
1174.25 ab
1174.00 be
1173.75 b
1173.50 abe
1173.25 e
1173.00 abe
1172.75 abef
1172.50 e
1172.25 aef
1172.00 0bef
1171.75 f
1171.50 e
1171.25 ae
1171.00 ae
1170.75 aef
1170.50 aef
1170.25 b
1170.00 g
1169.75 fg
1169.50 efg
1169.25 fgh
1169.00 cf
1168.75 bf
1168.50 cfgh
1168.25 cdfgh
1168.00 befg
1167.75 bcdfgh
1167.50 bcdfgh
1167.25 cdf
1167.00 cdfgh
1166.75 bcdeg
1166.50 ceg
1166.25 bcdgh
1166.00 cdegh
1165.75 cdgh
1165.50 bdgh
1165.25 cdegh
1165.00 cdh
1164.75 cdh
1164.50 cdh
1164.25 cdh
1164.00 dh
1163.75 h
1163.50 ch
1163.25 h
1162.00 h
1161.75 hil
1161.00 i
1160.75 il
1160.50 i
1160.25 i
1160.00 il
1159.75 il
1159.50 il
1159.25 il
1159.00 l
1158.75 i
1158.50 ik
1158.25 ik
1158.00 ik
1157.75 ikl
1157.50 ikl
1157.25 il
1157.00 ikl
1156.75 jkl
1156.50 jk
1156.25 jkl
1156.00 ijk
1155.75 jk
1155.50 ijklm
1155.25 ijk
1155.00 jl
1154.75 m
1154.50 km
1154.25 j
1154.00 j
1153.75 j
1153.50 m
1153.25 j
1152.75 j
1152.50 m
1151.25 m
1150.75 m
1149.75 m
1149.50 m
1149.25 m
1149.00 m
1148.25 m
1147.00 m
1146.00 m
1145.75 m
1145.50 m
1145.25 m
1145.00 m
1144.75 m
1144.25 m
1144.00 m

High Volume Nodes

trader — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 13:35:29 +0000

Here is the overlay curve on how the market has traded in the last 10 days of action:

1214.00 hd
1213.75 ad
1213.50 hed
1213.25 bjfed
1213.00 jihed
1212.75 jihfed
1212.50 bakjihged
1212.25 bihgfed
1212.00 bjihgfed
1211.75 akjhgfed
1211.50 bajhgfed
1211.25 bajihgfed
1211.00 bajigfe
1210.75 aigfe
1210.50 bakjifed
1210.25 gaigf
1210.00 mgbajigfc
1209.75 mgbajgfc
1209.50 gakjgfc
1209.25 mgbakgc
1209.00 mgbakgc
1208.75 mlhgbakgc
1208.50 mlkgbakc
1208.25 mlkhbakgc
1208.00 mlhbalkc
1207.75 mlkhbkc
1207.50 lkhgfk
1207.25 lkhgfba0lkc
1207.00 kjhgfeck
1206.75 mlkjihfakc
1206.50 lkjhgfebk
1206.25 mlkjhfecblkc
1206.00 ljife
1205.75 mlkjfec
1205.50 mlkjifl
1205.25 mlkjifcc
1205.00 mkjifec
1204.75 miecb
1204.50 ieclcb
1204.25 miedcc
1204.00 idlc
1203.75 iecba
1203.50 idcmlca
1203.25 iedlb
1203.00 edl
1202.75 mledml0
1202.50 mledclba
1202.25 mledml
1202.00 mledcmmb
1201.75 mldclba
1201.50 mlkdcmmla
1201.25 mlkecmmlb
1201.00 kjedcmmlba
1200.75 mldmlba
1200.50 mkmmlba
1200.25 mkjdcmlb
1200.00 mlkjdcmla
1199.75 lkjemmlba
1199.50 lkjdmma
1199.25 lkjecmlma
1199.00 mlkjcll
1198.75 mlkjelaba
1198.50 kjmmbab
1198.25 mjhcba
1198.00 kjhlmbaa
1197.75 mjhbmab
1197.50 jhbmmbaba
1197.25 jhlmb
1197.00 lhmlmaba
1196.75 igblmaa0
1196.50 ihglmaba
1196.25 mihgmab
1196.00 ihgbba
1195.75 ihgaba
1195.50 migfblaba
1195.25 igfbb
1195.00 migfaba
1194.75 migfla
1194.50 mf0ba
1194.25 mlifblb
1194.00 febkc
1193.75 mgfebakcb
1193.50 lfeblkb
1193.25 mfebac
1193.00 mfebakec
1192.75 febalkeec
1192.50 feakjec
1192.25 lfebakfefe
1192.00 lbakjfeec
1191.75 mlfakjfejfec
1191.50 lebfejfc
1191.25 ledakjfjgfc
1191.00 mlakjfejifed
1190.75 ledbakjfeajhgfec
1190.50 mldalkjfejihfedc
1190.25 ldblkjejihgfd
1190.00 lclkjfejihgfedc
1189.75 dalfajihedj
1189.50 ldbljfea0jihgdj
1189.25 mdcljfdkjihedcj
1189.00 mdcljgfkjihgdcj
1188.75 dcjigfedaihgfdcj
1188.50 ldcigfdhgkj
1188.25 ldigfdajhgdki
1188.00 lcigedakhgdckji
1187.75 mcjigedajhgdcji
1187.50 dcigeakgdkji
1187.25 mldcjiedagfkj
1187.00 lcjihedlgdkf
1186.75 mdjihgdcalgkifd
1186.50 lkdcihgcajfif
1186.25 kdhgdcbkif
1186.00 dhgdcbakgkifd
1185.75 mchdcbalgkfdc
1185.50 mchgdcgkifdc
1185.25 mkjhcblkhd
1185.00 mjdhcballkihfed
1184.75 mjdcblihgfd
1184.50 kdhcbljkihfed
1184.25 kjdcbalhgc
1184.00 mkjdcballihfedc
1183.75 kjcblklihgfedc
1183.50 mkjcbaklhgfedca
1183.25 kcblklihgfedca
1183.00 kjblkjigfeb
1182.75 kjbllihgeca
1182.50 mkjblkjhgedcba
1182.25 jbkgeba
1182.00 jbkgecb
1181.75 jibklhgecb
1181.50 jlkecb
1181.25 jigcba
1181.00 jklc
1180.75 illba
1180.50 illcba
1180.25 jilkcb
1180.00 jil
1179.75 ilkba0
1179.50 ilklba
1179.25 mlba
1179.00 iklb
1178.75 jklba
1178.50 iba
1178.25 jla
1178.00 ima
1177.75 ia
1177.50 jma
1177.25 mka
1177.00 kla
1176.75 ia
1176.50 ih
1176.25 ih
1176.00 ihml
1175.75 ihml
1175.50 hgl
1175.25 hgm
1175.00 hgmml
1174.75 hm
1174.50 hgm
1174.25 hga
1174.00 m
1173.75 hg
1173.50 hmml
1173.25 ga
1173.00 gfaml
1172.75 gfa
1172.50 f
1172.25 gfm
1172.00 gfe0
1171.75 gfe
1171.50 feam
1171.25 feam
1171.00 fem
1170.75 eam
1170.50 feam
1170.25 fem
1170.00 feamm
1169.75 feda
1169.50 fedam
1169.25 feda
1169.00 eamm
1168.75 edba
1168.50 ed
1168.25 dba
1168.00 bam
1167.75 dam
1167.50 dbm
1167.25 dbm
1167.00 da
1166.75 dbm
1166.50 dmm
1166.25 db
1166.00 b
1165.75 bm
1165.50 dmm
1165.25 dcbm
1165.00 mm
1164.75 cbm
1164.50 cmm
1164.25 dc
1164.00 dcbmm
1163.75 c
1163.25 c
1163.00 cm
1162.75 dcb
1162.50 dc
1162.25 cb
1162.00 c
1161.75 c
1161.50 cbm
1161.25 cb
1161.00 c
1160.50 c
1160.25 b
1160.00 b
1159.75 cb
1159.50 b
1158.75 b
1158.00 m
1157.75 b
1157.25 bm
1157.00 m
1156.50 m
1155.00 m
1154.50 m
1154.25 m
1153.75 m
1153.50 m
1153.00 m
1152.25 m
1151.50 m
1151.00 m
1150.75 m
1150.50 m
1149.50 m
1149.25 l
1149.00 ml
1148.75 ml
1148.50 l
1148.25 m
1148.00 ml
1147.75 ml
1147.50 l
1147.00 l
1146.75 l
1146.50 l
1145.75 l
1145.50 l
1145.25 l
1144.00 lk
1143.75 kfe
1143.50 k
1143.25 ke
1143.00 kfe
1142.75 ke
1142.50 kfe
1142.25 ke
1142.00 kf
1141.75 gfa
1141.50 kgf
1141.25 kjgfe
1141.00 kjgfe
1140.75 kgfe
1140.50 ga
1140.25 jgf0
1140.00 jgfea
1139.75 jgfe
1139.50 jf
1139.25 kjfeda
1139.00 kjfa
1138.75 jea
1138.50 jda
1138.25 jeda
1138.00 da
1137.75 kjgda
1137.50 jgd
1137.25 hgea
1137.00 je
1136.75 gda
1136.50 igd
1136.25 jgd
1136.00 ihgda
1135.75 iga
1135.50 ihgd
1135.25 bjjhga
1135.00 jihda
1134.75 bida
1134.50 ih
1134.25 ihd
1134.00 bihd
1133.75 cjiihc
1133.50 cbjhca
1133.25 ciihca
1133.00 jidihda
1132.75 cdihc
1132.50 cjiihd
1132.25 cjihc
1132.00 baj
1131.75 cbiecba
1131.50 cmjidba
1131.25 cbamifdc
1131.00 mjidb
1130.75 bmed
1130.50 cmjfb
1130.25 cigfedc
1130.00 cbamjfcb
1129.75 amljdcb
1129.50 cblfecb
1129.25 bmlifdccb
1129.00 amljgfc
1128.75 dcbljedccb
1128.50 ecbagfdcb
1128.25 cmlkigfecb
1128.00 gbamligfedcc
1127.75 dakjgfedb
1127.50 hebamlkgfacb
1127.25 geamlkjigedcb
1127.00 gedamkjigfedab
1126.75 gedalkjifedb
1126.50 gedljgfedacb
1126.25 hgeda0mlkjihedcb
1126.00 jhedbalkihgfebcb
1125.75 hgedbakhecbcb
1125.50 hebalkjhgeab
1125.25 mdbakhgc
1125.00 medaihgecb
1124.75 hedkihgac
1124.50 gedihcbab
1124.25 gedlkc
1124.00 mjhgedbkhcba
1123.75 mgdbahca
1123.50 dahga
1123.25 hedkgca
1123.00 mhgealgcb
1122.75 hfbcb
1122.50 heh
1122.25 mjhhcba
1122.00 hgfhcba
1121.75 mkhgfaa
1121.50 hgf
1121.25 kihfbc
1121.00 kjgfaca
1120.75 mjgfcb
1120.50 mkihfba
1120.25 kjihf
1120.00 kifb
1119.75 kifb
1119.50 mkihfb
1119.25 mkifba
1119.00 kjifba
1118.75 mkhfba
1118.50 kfb
1118.25 kia
1118.00 mifb
1117.75 kifa
1117.50 f
1117.25 mkba
1117.00 k
1116.75 i
1116.50 mib
1116.25 mki
1116.00 mlk
1115.75 lkia
1115.50 kj
1115.25 l
1115.00 j0
1114.75 mjia
1114.50 lja
1114.25 mlji
1114.00 mlj
1113.75 lj
1113.50 l
1113.25 lj
1113.00 lj
1112.50 lj
1112.25 lj
1112.00 mlj
1111.75 mlj
1111.50 ml
1111.25 m
1111.00 m
1110.75 l
1110.25 l
1110.00 l
1109.50 l
1109.25 l
1108.25 l
1107.50 l
1107.25 l

Globex Rally

trader — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 05:29:38 +0000

Market was up 20 handles in the globex session opening at 1180 levels. As this levels got accepted the market went to 1190 but without to much conviction. This produced a market sell of in the afternoon closing at 1170 levels.
From a market profile perspective the day was a perfect normal distribution, its center was in the 1180 area, its highs in 1190 and its lows in 1170.

1189.75 j
1189.50 j
1189.25 j
1189.00 j
1188.75 j
1188.50 jk
1188.25 ik
1188.00 ijk
1187.75 ij
1187.50 ijk
1187.25 jk
1187.00 fk
1186.75 dfik
1186.50 fi
1186.25 fik
1186.00 dfik
1185.75 cdfk
1185.50 cdfik
1185.25 dhk
1185.00 defhikl
1184.75 dfghi
1184.50 defhik
1184.25 cgh
1184.00 cdefhil
1183.75 cdefghil
1183.50 acdefghl
1183.25 acdefghil
1183.00 befgi
1182.75 aceghil
1182.50 abcdegh
1182.25 abeg
1182.00 bceg
1181.75 bceghl
1181.50 bce
1181.25 abcg
1181.00 cl
1180.75 abl
1180.50 abcl
1180.25 bc
1180.00 l
1179.75 0ab
1179.50 abl
1179.25 ab
1179.00 bl
1178.75 abl
1178.50 ab
1178.25 al
1178.00 a
1177.75 a
1177.50 a
1177.25 a
1177.00 al
1176.75 a
1176.00 lm
1175.75 lm
1175.50 l
1175.25 m
1175.00 lm
1174.75 m
1174.00 m
1173.50 lm
1173.00 lm
1172.25 m
1171.50 m
1171.25 m
1171.00 m
1170.75 m
1170.00 m
1169.00 m
1167.75 m
1167.50 m
1167.25 m
1166.75 m
1166.50 m
1165.50 m
1165.25 m
1165.00 m
1164.75 m
1164.50 m
1164.00 m

Out of bracket lows

trader — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 05:19:57 +0000

When a break of a bracket to the upside is denied as we saw a few days ago the market will go to lower extremes fast. The same is true in the lower extreme of the bracket. The market don’t have enough fuel to get lower so it gets up with strenght. The market opened in the 1120 levels and closed at the end of the day in the 1160. We don’t know if 1160 was accepted as the market didn’t had time to form volume.

1158.00 m
1157.25 m
1157.00 m
1156.50 m
1155.00 m
1154.50 m
1154.25 m
1153.75 m
1153.50 m
1153.00 m
1152.25 m
1151.50 m
1151.00 m
1150.75 m
1150.50 m
1149.50 m
1149.25 l
1149.00 lm
1148.75 lm
1148.50 l
1148.25 m
1148.00 lm
1147.75 lm
1147.50 l
1147.00 l
1146.75 l
1146.50 l
1145.75 l
1145.50 l
1145.25 l
1144.00 kl
1143.75 efk
1143.50 k
1143.25 ek
1143.00 efk
1142.75 ek
1142.50 efk
1142.25 ek
1142.00 fk
1141.75 afg
1141.50 fgk
1141.25 efgjk
1141.00 efgjk
1140.75 efgk
1140.50 ag
1140.25 0fgj
1140.00 aefgj
1139.75 efgj
1139.50 fj
1139.25 adefjk
1139.00 afjk
1138.75 aej
1138.50 adj
1138.25 adej
1138.00 ad
1137.75 adgjk
1137.50 dgj
1137.25 aegh
1137.00 ej
1136.75 adg
1136.50 dgi
1136.25 dgj
1136.00 adghi
1135.75 agi
1135.50 dghi
1135.25 aghj
1135.00 adhi
1134.75 adi
1134.50 hi
1134.25 dhi
1134.00 dhi
1133.75 chi
1133.50 ach
1133.25 achi
1133.00 adhi
1132.75 chi
1132.50 dhi
1132.25 chi
1131.75 abc
1131.50 ab
1131.25 c
1131.00 b
1130.50 b
1130.25 c
1130.00 bc
1129.75 bc
1129.50 b
1129.25 bc
1128.75 bc
1128.50 bc
1128.25 bc
1128.00 c
1127.75 b
1127.50 bc
1127.25 b
1127.00 b
1126.75 b
1126.50 bc
1126.25 b
1126.00 bc
1125.75 bc
1125.50 b
1125.25 c
1125.00 bc
1124.75 c
1124.50 b

important European calendar updates

trader — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 13:22:18 +0000

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
– Sep 27 Merkel to meet Papandrou in Berlin at 1800GMT
– Sep 27 Slovenian parliament votes on EFSF before it is dissolved
– Sep 27 Spain sells 3-/6-month T-bills for E2.5bln-E3.5bln
– Sep 27 Austria Fin committee meets to consider EFSF Bill to go to
Special Parliament session Sep 30
– Sep 27 Greek Parliament votes new austerity measures inc property tax
– Sep 28 Belgium 5.00% 2011 OLO redemption for E7.656bln
– Sep 28 Belgium coupon payment for E4.3bln
– Sep 29 Germany ‘EFSF’ ratification in Lower house, Bundestag
– Sep 29 German lawmakers vote on Greek aid
– Sep 29 Italy medium-long BTP bond auctions
– Sep 30 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.0bln
– Sep 30 Italy CTZ redemption for E13.551bln
– Sep 30 German upper house Bundestrat votes on reform of the EFSF
– Sep 30 Greece 6th review, Portugal 2nd review, Ireland 4th review

Thank you Brian Shepard.

Signup for a free 7 days trial to Mr Topstep IM Service.

Normal distribution in lower extreme of bracket

trader — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 06:07:01 +0000

Market hanging in the lower extreme of the bracket. In here to get lower we need more bad fundamental economic news to fuel more downside move. As this didn’t happened today the market is hanging in the extreme forming a double distribution.

1135.25 j
1135.00 j
1133.75 ij
1133.50 j
1133.25 i
1133.00 dij
1132.75 d
1132.50 ij
1132.25 j
1132.00 j
1131.75 ei
1131.50 dijm
1131.25 dfim
1131.00 dijm
1130.75 dem
1130.50 fjm
1130.25 defgi
1130.00 fjm
1129.75 djlm
1129.50 cefl
1129.25 cdfilm
1129.00 cfgjlm
1128.75 cdejl
1128.50 dfg
1128.25 efgiklm
1128.00 cdefgilm
1127.75 defgjk
1127.50 afgklm
1127.25 cdegijklm
1127.00 adefgijkm
1126.75 defijkl
1126.50 adefgjl
1126.25 cdehijklm
1126.00 befghikl
1125.75 bcehk
1125.50 aeghjkl
1125.25 ghk
1125.00 eghi
1124.75 aghik
1124.50 abchi
1124.25 ckl
1124.00 abchk
1123.75 ach
1123.50 agh
1123.25 acgk
1123.00 bcgl
1122.75 bc
1122.50 h
1122.25 abch
1122.00 abch
1121.75 a
1121.25 c
1121.00 ac
1120.75 bc
1120.50 ab
1120.00 b
1119.75 b
1119.50 b
1119.25 ab
1119.00 ab
1118.75 ab
1118.50 b
1118.25 a
1118.00 b
1117.75 a
1117.25 ab
1116.50 b
1115.75 a
1115.00 0
1114.75 a
1114.50 a

The day after the FED

trader — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 05:01:01 +0000

After the FED announcement yesterday the market moved fast to the lower extreme of the intermediate range formed after the US debt crisis and rating downgrade.
Market continue lower until 1107 area, where enough buyers were found to move the market to 1120, very close to its opening. We could find more buying in the next days in this lower extreme.

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Fed Day

trader — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 05:18:16 +0000

A fed announcement like the one we had today is very dangerous for the value based trader. The volatility is high, market movements during and after the release are huge, opportunity is big but risk is enormous if you are in the wrong side of the market. I personally don’t trade the FED announcement and other big economic news.

Before the announcement market moved down from 1200 to 1990 area, traders short covering before the FED.After that market stay there until the announcement after 2:15 pm.

Market dropped sharply after then to close in the 1160 area:

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Responsive traders

trader — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 05:03:59 +0000

The Market opened at 1200 levels, then went down to the 1190 levels but this lower value was quickly rejected in the morning. Market moved 10 handles to the opening point and then moved 10 handles more to the upside at 1210 area. In the 1220 area we have the intermediate bracket higher extreme, this bracket is formed after the US debt problem and downgrade of investment rating to this country from S&P and others. Is an important bracket and it needs fuel to be broken. This fuel is good economic data, we are really not under those conditions right now, in fact the situation in Europe is not good and the 0 jobs creation in The US from August don’t help either.

So, responsive traders got in the market when it was trading at 1215 and moved the market down to 1200 area again where the market formed value and closed for the day.

Tomorrow the FED announcement could be the fuel we need to break up if they release good news.

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